It goes without saying that former President Donald Trump has amassed a tower of legal troubles over the past year, both civil and criminal, that renders a blanket of uncertainty of what the 2024 election will look like – particularly from the Republican side of the aisle.
As it stands, Trump is currently dealing with two criminal cases; one being the 34-count felony indictment out of New York over Trump’s alleged falsifying of business records, and the 37-count federal indictment over Trump’s alleged mishandling of classified records after leaving office (which the former president was hit with an additional count related to the federal case on July 27th).
When it comes to the Manhattan case over Trump’s alleged falsifying of business records, even David Orentlicher writing for CNN in April noted that this particular case is “weak” and based upon a “dubious legal theory” that is not tantamount to illegal conduct.
But the strength or weakness of the Manhattan case alone is virtually insignificant, as the mere existence of the indictment provides fodder to embolden talking points that shroud Trump in a perilous light (i.e., news casts mentioning ‘Trump’s two criminal cases,’ versus mentioning ‘Trump’s single criminal case’).
Furthermore, while the New York case may be flimsy, the federal indictment ostensibly carries a lot more legal merit, regardless of whether or not one believes the charges stemmed from a fervent, ideologically-driven pursuit of the former president.
The fact of the matter is an indictment can absolutely appear to be politically motivated on its face while still satisfying the evidentiary standards to prosecute and possibly convict, this is a reality that Republicans and conservatives need to face in order to reasonably deal with how the cases against Trump may unfold.
Currently, Trump’s two criminal cases are both slated to kick off in the courtroom before the 2024 election, with the New York case slated to go to trial in March of 2024 and the federal trial scheduled two months later.
But the two aforesaid criminal cases aren’t the only legal troubles the former president is enduring, as therein lies the possibility of two additional cases (one from the state of Georgia and another federal indictment) that could render a cornucopia of uncertainty about what will come of the GOP presidential nomination for 2024.
The potential case out of Georgia stems from Trump’s alleged efforts to overturn the state’s election results from 2020, with prosecutors reportedly eyeing down charges relating to criminal solicitation to commit election fraud and conspiracy to commit election fraud, and other related charges stemming from phone calls to Georgia secretary of state, Brad Raffensperger, chief investigator Frances Watson and the House speaker, David Ralston, pertaining to the 2020 election results.
Back in April, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis confirmed that a decision on whether to indict the former president or not would be announced on or before September 1st, 2023.
But then there’s the ambiguity surrounding special counsel Jack Smith’s investigation into Trump, with reports having indicated that Trump is a “target” in the ongoing probe surrounding alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election and the January 6 incident at the Capitol.
Trump acknowledged the existence of these two, possibly, forthcoming indictments earlier in July via his social media platform Truth Social, calling the criminal investigations a “witch hunt” that represent “a very sad and dark period for our nation.”
Attorneys of the former president reportedly met with special counsel Jack Smith on July 27th, signaling a high likelihood that a second set of federal charges could be a very real possibility.
So, with two trials coming up in 2024, with the possibility of other trials later down the road, what does this mean for the GOP primary exactly?
Trump is currently leading in the Republican primary polls for 2024, by a considerable margin at that – yet the former president could very well find himself convicted & imprisoned in one (or more) of the active or looming cases before a primary candidate is selected in September of 2024.
If Trump were hypothetically convicted and sentenced for any offense before the 2024 primaries, the GOP primary debacle would at least be logistically easier to navigate to a degree.
However, if any such event were to hypothetically occur after Trump secured the GOP nomination (or even securing the presidency), then the matter would get a whole lot murkier due to venturing into legally untested arenas.
Legal questions would be abound on whether a president could pardon themselves (in regard to Trump’s federal cases), but the state criminal case out of New York – and the possible one out of Georgia – would present an additional slew of legal questions considering presidential pardons have no bearing on state cases.
Whatever occurs in the long run, the Republican presidential primary for 2024 is going to be one for the history books, though likely not for good reasons.
Gregory Hoyt is a former contributor to outlets such as Law Enforcement Today and Red Voice Media, and current host of The Breakdown with Greg Hoyt. Based out of Sierra Vista, Arizona, Hoyt is a staunch and outspoken advocate of law enforcement and first responders, while also harboring the unique experience of having spent nearly 5 years in prison. Since then, he's used his unique perspective to offer support and commentary about the criminal justice system. When not working or combating bad ideas, Hoyt also leisurely studies economics, history, and law.
This was a great article and I am curious as to the second wave of charges. I will say I can answer if a President can pardon himself. The truth is he can not , Nixon wanted to do the same thing. He would be impeached first which would make his 3rd impeachment. Once impeached the chargers would B filed. The only thing I know for sure 45 still has a tight grip on the republican party and it doesn’t look as if he is going to release it. Great article